Land use and ecosystem carbon storage change and prediction in the Haihe River basin
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Abstract:
The change of regional land use affects carbon emission and carbon sequestration processes, which in turn causes changes in the carbon cycle and carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems. Based on the China land cover dataset, the carbon storage and sequestration module of the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs model was used to estimate the carbon storage and changes in terrestrial ecosystems from 1990 to 2020 in the Haihe River basin. The patch-generating land use simulation model was combined to predict future land use and carbon storage. The integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs model could quantify regional carbon storage based on regional carbon density. The carbon storage and sequestration module mainly depended on land cover types and a basic carbon pool model. The basic carbon pool model divided carbon storage into four types: aboveground biomass carbon, belowground biomass carbon, soil carbon, and dead organic matter carbon. The patch-generating land use simulation model is a cellular automata model based on raster data that could simulate land use changes at the patch scale. It integrated the land expansion analysis strategy and a cellular automata model based on multiple random patch seeds, which could be used to explore the driving factors of land expansion and predict the patch-level evolution of land use landscapes. Additionally, geodetector was utilized to quantitatively explain the driving mechanisms of carbon storage in the Haihe River basin. Geodetector is a method for detecting spatial variations of geographic features and revealing their driving factors. This method allows for direct correlation analysis between the dependent variable and the independent variables without considering collinearity among factors.The results showed that:(1)the carbon storage decreased by a total of 4.98% from 1990 to 2020, with the year 2003 as the turning point. Carbon storage exhibited a fluctuating declining trend, followed by a decrease in the magnitude of fluctuations, fluctuating around 2.05 billion tons.(2)The spatial distribution of carbon density in the basin exhibited significant heterogeneity. High carbon density values were mainly concentrated in the eastern and northern forested areas of the basin, while low values were primarily distributed in cities and the Bohai Bay region.(3)In 2030, apart from the scenario of rapid urban development, other scenarios show varying degrees of carbon stock increase. The scenario with the highest increase is the ecological conservation scenario, which has a carbon stock of 0.77 million tons higher than the scenario of rapid urban development. This indicates that ecological improvement is beneficial for carbon sequestration in regional terrestrial ecosystems. In the scenario of rapid urban development, the expansion of impervious surfaces encroached upon cropland, leading to a significant reduction in carbon storage in the eastern plain area of the Haihe River basin.(4)Natural factors had a higher explanatory power than socio-economic factors, and the interaction between population density, DEM, and other climatic factors has the strongest explanatory power for changes in carbon stock. The results will provide certain theoretical support for land regulation and future low-carbon development in the Haihe River basin and also serve as a reference for better implementation of the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.
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