Assessment of water ecosystem carrying capacity in seven rivers basins in Shanxi Province
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Abstract:
The objective of this study is to establish a unified evaluation system for water ecosystem carrying capacity in multiple river basins, which can scientifically analyze, compare, and predict the changes in water ecosystem carrying capacity. This will further enable the proposal of targeted measures for water ecosystem restoration.Principal component analysis (PCA) and entropy weighting method were used to establish the evaluation indicator system. A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was introduced to classify the water ecosystem carrying capacity assessment levels. The ARIMA model was utilized to predict the changes in water ecosystem carrying capacity in the seven rivers basins.From 2011 to 2021, the water ecosystem carrying capacity in the seven rivers basins was generally at an overloaded level. Among them, the Fen River basin showed a significant upward trend, reaching the level of basic sustainability. The remaining basins exhibited insignificant changes in water ecosystem carrying capacity and were classified as generally overloaded. Through the analysis of the contribution rates of evaluation indicators, it was found that the water environmental index and water resources index had a significant impact on the water ecosystem carrying capacity in the selected basins. The ARIMA prediction results indicate that from 2022 to 2031, the water ecosystem carrying capacity of the Fen River, Shushui River, and Qin (Dan) River will continue to increase, leading to an overall improvement in the carrying capacity of each basin.The unified evaluation system in multiple river basins provides a scientific assessment of the water ecosystem carrying capacity of the seven rivers basins in Shanxi Province. Additionally, the ARIMA model proves to be a suitable tool for predicting future trends in water ecosystem carrying capacity changes across multiple river basins.
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冀公网安备13010502002656号