Attribution analysis of virtual water flow in China from the perspective of comparative advantage
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Abstract:
In the 1990s, British scholar Allan introduced the concept of virtual water to quantify the water resources consumed in economic activities. Water-scarce countries procure water-intensive products through commerce to ensure supply and water security. With worldwide conferences and forums debating it extensively, virtual water research has acquired at traction. Database searches reveal a total of 29,471 domestic and international research papers on virtual water, showing a consistent growth trend. However, the applicability of virtual water strategy varies across water-scarce regions, leading to debates over its effectiveness. Rooted in the theory of comparative advantage, virtual water strategy overlooks multifaceted influences. Currently, the predominant body of research is centered around the calculation of scale and analysis of characteristics related to virtual water transfer. However, the driving causes of virtual water transfer remain conspicuously scarce.Incorporated the theory of comparative advantage, the scientific validity and effectiveness of virtual water research were heightened. The virtual water flow patterns of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, industry, construction, wholesale and retail, transportation, accommodation, and catering sectors across Chinese provinces in 2007, 2012 and 2017 were analyzed. Metrics such as the location quotient and growth quotient index were employed to establish the quantitative relationship between the pattern of virtual water flow and industrial comparative advantage.The results showed that the virtual water flow pattern in China was closely related to the industrial comparative advantage. The location quotient index can explain 72% of China’s virtual water transfer volume, while the growth quotient index substantiates 71% of China’s virtual water transfer change volume. The location and growth quotients of different industries are negatively correlated with the corresponding virtual water transfer volume and virtual water transfer change volume. This shows that virtual water associated with a specific industry predominantly relocates from regions boasting comparative advantages to those devoid of such advantages, and the speed of industry development may lead to a corresponding change in the magnitude of virtual water transfer.The prerequisites for implementing virtual water strategies are identified and the scientific value of virtual water research is discussed. The valuable insights into the driving causes of virtual water transfer are also provided and the development of virtual water strategies in China can be informed. By understanding the correlation between virtual water flow patterns and industrial comparative advantage, policymakers can make informed decisions to promote sustainable water resource management.
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