The impact of extreme precipitation on agricultural production in Shanxi Province
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Abstract:
In recent years, global climate change has intensified, leading to a northward shift of typhoon paths. Consequently, China's inland regions are increasingly experiencing persistent extreme precipitation events, which are significantly impacting agricultural production. As a crucial grain production base in the northwest region of China, Shaanxi has suffered a lot of extreme precipitation in recent years. During the period from 2010 to 2020, the climate in Shaanxi Province underwent pronounced fluctuations, marked by a notable increase in precipitation levels and a significant rise in the frequency of extreme precipitation events, resulting in substantial impacts on agricultural production. Therefore, to comprehend the recent patterns of extreme precipitation in the province, as well as to effectively prevent and control extreme precipitation disasters while mitigating potential economic losses, an assessment was conducted based on the precipitation data in Shaanxi Province from 2010 to 2020.This assessment took geographic terrain, vegetation cover, socio-economic attributes into consideration, and employed an evaluation framework including the hazard index, exposure index, and vulnerability index (HEV). This comprehensive approach enabled a detailed risk analysis regarding the impact of extreme precipitation on agricultural production in Shaanxi Province, creating a risk distribution map.The results indicate that, although the overall intensity of extreme precipitation events exhibited a decrease during the recent period, there was a discernible upward trend in the frequency of these events, specifically between the years 2015 and 2020. Subsequently, distinct computations of the HEV were carried out. The findings revealed higher hazard values concentrated in the eastern regions of the Guanzhong zones and southern Shaanxi, while relatively lower hazard values in the southern part of northern Shaanxi. Notably, Xi'an City was the highest exposure index in the province, while Yulin in northern Shaanxi had the lowest exposure index. The central parts of both the Guanzhong zones and Hanzhong showed higher vulnerability values, in contrast to the lower vulnerability values in the northern part of Hanzhong and the southern part of Baoji. Considering the comprehensive attributes encompassing hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, the risk analysis pinpointed several notable zones. Xianyang City's southern part, the northern part of Xi'an City, and the central part of Hanzhong were identified as high-risk zones, significantly susceptible to the impacts of extreme precipitation. On the other hand, the southern part of Xi'an City and the northern part of Hanzhong, characterized by higher exposure but lower hazard and vulnerability, fell within the medium-risk category. Areas with relatively lower socio-economic development, such as the northern regions of Shaanxi and the southern part of Baoji, were designated as low-risk zones within the context of this comprehensive risk assessment framework. Guided by the research findings, relevant authorities should emphasize specific strategies when addressing the impacts of extreme precipitation on agricultural production and livelihoods.In regions predominantly influenced by extreme precipitation intensity and frequency, like the southern part of Xianyang City, it is essential to enhance the precision and accuracy of early warnings and forecasts and refining responsive mechanisms. In high-risk areas primarily shaped by topography, such as the central part of Hanzhong City, appropriately increasing vegetation cover based on local water carrying capacity and improving agricultural infrastructure are recommended. In areas marked by high-density rural economies, such as the northern part of Xi'an City, efforts should be directed towards enhancing the disaster resilience of agricultural activities through crop optimization and management. This multidimensional risk analysis provides a theoretical foundation, enabling agricultural and water resource management authorities to effectively address the increasingly frequent and intense extreme precipitation disasters in a changing environment.
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